Harvest 2025 Update

The time has once again come for farmers across the United States to harvest their crops and bring another growing season to a close. If you’ve traveled through the I-States (Indiana, Illinois, or Iowa) recently, you’ve likely seen combines rolling steadily across fields, reaping what has been sown. Harvest time is both exhausting and deeply rewarding, a season that stirs memories of past years while sowing hope for what lies ahead.

Still, 2025 has not been an easy year for U.S. agriculture. Tariff tensions have weighed heavily on commodity markets, pushing prices below breakeven levels amidst uncertainty about end market demand and where this year’s grain will ultimately go. As of late October, December corn futures sit around $4.29 per bushel, and November soybeans near $10.64. According to the University of Illinois Farmdoc team, break-even prices for high-productivity farmland are closer to $4.63 for corn and $10.87 for soybeans, meaning most producers are operating in the red. Some farmers sold a portion of their crop when prices peaked in the spring, before tariff headlines hit in April, but most farmers have held back, hoping for a rally that has yet to materialize.

A recent Farm Journal survey of more than 1,100 corn producers signals that 2025 yields will likely fall short of 2024’s record output. The national average is expected to be near 178.5 bushels per acre, down slightly from last year’s 179.3. The steepest declines are showing up in the key I-states, with Illinois down about 7%, Indiana off 4.6%, and Iowa down 3.2%. In contrast, northern states like Minnesota and South Dakota are expected to post modest gains of roughly 3–4%. Disease pressure, late-season dry spells, and localized stress have been key challenges. As of mid-October, roughly 43% of the corn crop had been harvested, and 79% of soybeans were in the bin, helped along by favorable in field drying weather. Storage capacity, however, is becoming a pinch point in parts of the Northern Plains, where over half of South Dakota farmers reported insufficient space for this year’s crop. Even a modest national yield dip in the heart of the Corn Belt could have an outsized influence on overall production and pricing dynamics heading into the 2026 crop year.

Economically, many producers are feeling the squeeze. Farm economists warn that the current downturn is serious, but not quite a replay of the 1980s farm crisis. Nearly 70% of economists see parallels to that difficult decade, but they also note that today’s farmers benefit from stronger USDA safety nets, crop insurance programs, and credit frameworks. The headwinds are clear: soft global demand, high input costs, and continued consolidation across the ag sector. Livestock markets have remained relatively stable, but crop producers are bearing the brunt of compressed farming margins. Economists describe the situation as a “slow grind” rather than a collapse.  The situation is painful for the ag sector, but with resiliency has been built into the sector over many trials. Recovery of farming margins will likely come slowly and unevenly.

Amid these challenges, the USDA’s announcement to release over $3 billion in farm aid offers some much-needed relief to stressed farmers. The funds, drawn from the Commodity Credit Corporation, had been frozen during the recent government shutdown. The government shutdown has also delayed USDA loan processing and farm-service payments at a critical time in the harvest cycle. This new round of support aims to help producers navigate low commodity prices, high input costs, and lingering trade disruptions. Still, questions remain about eligibility, timing, and whether more aid, potentially totaling $10 billion or more, may follow.

In short, the 2025 harvest tells a familiar story in American agriculture: resilience under pressure. Yields may be a touch lighter, the margins tighter, and the markets uncertain, but the hard work of the harvest continues. As combines finish their passes and grain bins fill, farmers across the country are once again doing what they’ve always done best, getting the crop in, steadying their balance sheets, and preparing to start all over again next spring.