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The 19th annual Land Investment Expo took place January 12–13 in Des Moines, Iowa, hosted by Peoples Company. The Promised Land team had the pleasure of both attending and presenting during one of the breakout sessions. The two-day event featured a Farmland Master Class on January 12, followed by dynamic presentations on January 13 from world-class economists, investors, farmers, agribusiness professionals, and other subject matter experts. Attendees represented a diverse range of backgrounds, including wealth managers, investment advisors, production agriculture professionals (farmers, ranchers, and vintners), land management and acquisition specialists, and educators. Sessions challenged listeners while offering a wide breadth of content, ranging from land values and returns to tariff disputes and sustainable farming practices.

Geopolitical strategy expert Peter Zeihan kicked off the conference with his presentation, “And Here We Are… At the End of the World.” Despite the ominous title, his commentary was not entirely negative, and his humor brought levity that even the most serious attendees could appreciate. A frequent Land Expo speaker, Zeihan is particularly adept at connecting global demographic trends and geopolitical events to their implications for the U.S. agricultural economy.

Much of his presentation focused on global population dynamics, including birth rates and aging trends, and how these factors influence economic growth, technological advancement, and infrastructure. China was a major point of emphasis, as the country faces a significant demographic challenge. Its one-child policy, in effect from 1979 to 2016, was implemented to curb what the government viewed as unsustainable population growth. However, the policy also led to unintended consequences, including a rapidly aging population and a severe gender imbalance, as cultural preferences for male children resulted in the widespread underreporting or abandonment of female births. Today, China faces a shrinking workforce and a surplus of working-age men with limited prospects for marriage and family formation. According to Zeihan, these demographic shifts pose serious challenges for China’s labor supply and threaten its long-term position as a global economic powerhouse.

Zeihan then turned his attention to the United States, discussing both demographic trends and the current political landscape. He noted that a wave of executive orders issued by President Trump reflects, in part, Congress’s ongoing difficulty in reaching decisions. Zeihan argued that globalization was always destined to fracture and that Trump merely accelerated this process. He also touched on the USDA’s challenges in implementing effective policy amid organizational strain and staffing shortages following recent federal employment cuts. These remarks served as a fitting introduction to the next speaker, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden.

Vaden took the stage and responded directly to several of Zeihan’s comments regarding USDA inefficiency. He emphasized that the USDA is actively working to reduce its physical footprint while strengthening its capacity as an institution critical to farm economics. Vaden highlighted the agency’s ability to cut approximately $1 billion from its $203 billion budget by closing underutilized and vacant USDA buildings on the National Mall and across the country.

He also discussed plans to shift USDA operations away from Washington, D.C., and closer to its primary stakeholders, farmers. The USDA already maintains a significant presence in Kansas City, where the Economic Research Service is headquartered, making it a likely hub for expanded operations.

Vaden further referenced upcoming ad hoc support payments totaling $12 billion, expected to be distributed in February, to help farmers navigate a low commodity price environment driven by tariffs and strong crop yields and production. While the U.S. and China have reached an interim agreement and China has resumed purchasing soybeans at agreed-upon levels, uncertainty remains regarding the durability of current trade arrangements. In addition, there is ongoing discussion in Congress about potential supplemental legislation to provide additional assistance to farmers if market conditions remain weak. However, until such legislation is passed and funded, it remains unclear whether the USDA will be able to continue providing ad hoc support at similar levels in the future.

Following the morning keynote, the first round of breakout sessions began. Promised Land presented “Opportunity Zone 2.0 Goes Rural,” which explored updates to the Opportunity Zone Program included in the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Led by John Heneghan and Mark Jablonski, the session highlighted the overall success of the initial Opportunity Zone program and outlined key program changes, with particular emphasis on new incentives designed to promote greater investment in rural Opportunity Zones and Qualified Production Properties (QPP). The presentation is available here.

The lunch keynote session featured a mix of award presentations, a discussion on family office involvement in agriculture, and a dose of what was affectionately described as “lunatic farming.” Peoples Company awarded its Farmer of the Year honor to Kevin Babb of Champaign County, Illinois, recognizing his lifelong achievements in agriculture.

Eric O’Keefe, master of ceremonies and editor of The Land Report, unveiled the Winter 2025 issue, which highlighted Stan Kroenke’s acquisition of nearly one million acres. The 937,000-acre purchase in New Mexico represents the largest single land acquisition in the United States in more than a decade and propelled the Los Angeles Rams owner to the top spot among U.S. landowners.

Following the unveiling, Joel Salatin took the stage and energized the room with his self-described “lunatic farming” philosophy. The prolific author and co-owner of his family farm described himself as a “Christian libertarian environmentalist capitalist lunatic farmer.” His operation provides meat and forestry products to more than 5,000 families, 10 restaurants, and five retail outlets. Salatin is also widely known for mentoring young people and advocating for local, regenerative food and farming systems.

Ron Diamond followed with a highly anticipated session titled “What Is a Family Office and Why Does It Matter?” Diamond, Founder and Chairman of Diamond Wealth, leads a syndicate of more than 100 family offices ranging in size from $250 million to $30 billion. He discussed how high-net-worth individuals are increasingly allocating capital to alternative assets, including farmland, and explored the evolving role of family offices in today’s investment landscape.

Diamond highlighted the massive generational wealth transfer underway, noting that approximately $124 trillion is expected to move from baby boomers to the next generation. As family offices grow in scale and sophistication, they are beginning to compete with, and in some cases encroach upon, traditional private equity. Unlike private equity firms, family offices typically operate with longer investment horizons, a tax-aware approach, and a patient-capital mindset with closely aligned interests.

He emphasized farmland’s ability to support long-term, multigenerational wealth objectives, aligning naturally with the perspective of family offices. Beyond financial returns, Diamond noted a growing desire among family offices to be part of America’s agricultural legacy, viewing farmland not only as a durable asset class, but also as a means of preserving land, supporting food production, and remaining connected to the country’s agricultural heritage. He concluded by posing a central question: “How do the rich people find the smart people, and how do the smart people find the rich people?”

The afternoon breakout sessions covered a wide range of topics, including timberland investment opportunities, farmland market overviews, water management strategies, succession planning, agricultural economics updates, and tax-deferred land strategies. The Promised Land team valued the opportunity to network with other professionals and explore potential collaborations during these sessions.

The afternoon keynote featured Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, Inc., who shared his outlook on the economy. He characterized the current decade as one of continued economic expansion, describing the U.S. as already six years into what he calls the “Roaring 2020s.” Looking ahead, Yardeni expressed confidence that growth will persist through the remainder of the decade and stated that he does not anticipate a recession in the near term.

Yardeni also addressed the intersection of politics and markets, cautioning investors against allowing political views to interfere with sound investment decisions. He emphasized that opportunities exist regardless of which party occupies the White House, noting that market downturns often present buying opportunities rather than reasons to retreat.

Geopolitical expert Marko Papic closed the expo with a forward-looking presentation titled “The End of U.S. Exceptionalism.” Papic suggested that 2026 will be shaped less by headline geopolitical events and more by economic policy decisions aimed at extending the current cycle. He highlighted the growing role of household wealth, particularly home equity, in sustaining economic momentum.

Papic also noted increasing investor interest in tangible, real assets such as land and minerals, suggesting that this shift should support long-term values. He expressed confidence in the stability of land and real estate markets over the coming decade, stating that he does not anticipate a meaningful change in their trajectory. Papic concluded by suggesting that land values may ultimately rival traditional stores of value, including gold, as investors continue to seek durable, inflation-resistant assets.

The Land Investment Expo 2026 reinforced the increasingly central role that land, agriculture, and real assets play in a rapidly evolving economic and geopolitical landscape. From global demographic shifts and domestic policy challenges to generational wealth transfer and long-term investment strategies, the conference underscored the importance of taking a broad, forward-looking view of agriculture and land ownership. Speakers consistently emphasized resilience, whether through farmland’s durability as an asset class, regenerative farming practices, or patient, values-driven investment, and highlighted the need for adaptability in an era of uncertainty.

For the Promised Land team, the expo offered valuable insights, meaningful dialogue, and opportunities to connect with like-minded professionals committed to the future of American agriculture. As investors, operators, and policymakers navigate the remainder of the decade, Land Investment Expo 2026 reemphasized farmland as a cornerstone of economic stability but also a lasting link to America’s agricultural heritage and long-term prosperity.

Author: Ailie Elmore

Introduction

Since its inception, the Opportunity Zone (OZ) program has mobilized nearly $100 billion in private capital, establishing itself as one of the most significant place-based economic development initiatives in the history of the United States. However, data from the Economic Innovation Group and the Joint Committee on Taxation indicates that the initial iteration of the program, OZ 1.0, saw investment flow disproportionately toward urban centers. While the program was successful in many regards, only an estimated 10% of total OZ capital reached rural low-income communities despite an estimated 40% of eligible tracts being considered rural in nature.

With the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) on July 4, 2025, the landscape has shifted significantly. This legislation not only codified the Opportunity Zone program as a permanent economic tool but also introduced specific, powerful incentives designed to correct the previous urban-rural capital imbalance. By creating a distinct category and related incentives for rural OZ investment—the Qualified Rural Opportunity Fund (QROF)—policymakers have effectively widened the path for capital to flow into America’s agricultural heartland. For tax practitioners and investors, understanding the mechanics of these new rural-specific incentives is essential for planning future capital deployment.

A Permanent Framework for Investment

The most fundamental change introduced by the new legislation is permanency. The original program was a temporary incentive scheduled to sunset, but the OBBBA has transitioned the OZ regime into a permanent fixture of the tax code.

Under this new "OZ 2.0" framework, the investment period officially begins on January 1, 2027. This reboot comes with a new map; governors in all 50 states must submit new census tract nominations by July 2026. While the general structure of deferring capital gains remains, the legislation introduces a bifurcation in benefits that heavily favors rural investment.

The Qualified Rural Opportunity Fund (QROF)

To access the enhanced rural benefits, investors must utilize a Qualified Rural Opportunity Fund (QROF). The legislation defines a QROF as a fund that invests at least 90% of its assets into designated "rural OZs." This distinction is critical. A standard Qualified Opportunity Fund (QOF) continues to offer attractive tax efficiency, but a QROF unlocks two specific "super-incentives" designed to effect change in rural economies: a significantly higher step-up in basis and a lower substantial improvement threshold.

Rural America’s Fundamental Case: Food, Fuel, and Fiber

While tax incentives provide the catalyst for capital movement, the underlying investment thesis for rural Opportunity Zones rests on its production of essential resources. Rural economies are generally anchored around the production of the necessities of life: food, fuel, and fiber. Because demand for these commodities is constant, the asset classes associated with their production—specifically cropland, pastureland, and agricultural facilities—have historically demonstrated unique economic resilience.

Data courtesy of the TIAA Center for Farmland Research at the University of Illinois covering the period from 1970 to 2024 highlights this attractive risk-reward profile. During this timeframe, farmland delivered equity-like returns of approximately 10% (outperforming the S&P 500 of approximately 8%) yet maintained a lower risk profile than the S&P 500 that was more comparable to bonds, with volatility near 7%. The underlying historical performance data suggests that rural assets can function as an inflation hedge similar to gold, but with the distinct advantage of generating annual operating income—effectively acting as a store of value with a "coupon."

[This Risk/Return Graphic is based on data from the TIAA Center for Farmland Research (1970–2024), farmland occupies a unique investment quadrant: offering equity-like returns (~10%) with the low volatility profile of fixed income (~7%).]

This stability is particularly relevant to the Opportunity Zone structure, which mandates a long-term hold. Historical performance indicates that farmland values appreciate at a spread of roughly 2% over inflation. Furthermore, the historical data shows that investors who held farmland for the 10-year period required by OZ rules would have remained in positive territory, even if they had purchased at market peaks preceding major economic downturns like the 1980s farm crisis. By coupling these fundamental attributes with the new OZ 2.0 incentives, the rural sector presents a compelling case for risk-aware, long-term capital.

Supercharged Incentive #1: The 30% Step-Up

The first, and perhaps most attractive, incentive for investors is the enhanced step-up in basis. Under the standard OZ 2.0 rules, an investor who holds their interest in a QOF for five years receives a 10% step-up in basis on the deferred taxes. This is a valuable benefit, effectively reducing the tax liability on the original capital gain by 10%.

However, the OBBBA provisions state that for investments made through a QROF, that benefit triples. Investors who hold their QROF investment for five years receive a 30% step-up in basis. This dramatic increase significantly alters the return profile for rural investments, offering a "buffer" that can make rural development deals competitive with potentially higher-yielding urban real estate development projects. This 30% step-up acts as a powerful

magnet for patient capital, rewarding investors for allocating capital to rural areas that have historically struggled to attract institutional capital.

Supercharged Incentive #2: The 50% Improvement Threshold

The second hurdle in the original OZ program was the "substantial improvement" requirement. To qualify for tax benefits, an investor purchasing an existing asset generally had to double its basis—investing $1 for every $1 of the asset’s value (excluding land) within a 30-month window. In rural settings, where asset values can be idiosyncratic and construction logistics more challenging, this 100% improvement threshold often proved challenging.

The new legislation directly addresses this potential impediment. For QROFs, the substantial improvement requirement is reduced to 50% of the property's acquisition basis (excluding land).

This lower threshold is a game-changer for agricultural operations, making a wider range of infrastructure upgrades economically viable. For example, a farming operation might not need to double the value of its existing improvements to increase the farm’s productivity. Under the new rules, a moderate investment in modernization of production facilities and farm equipment, such as grain bin storage, drainage and irrigation, now qualifies.

Practical Application: What Qualifies?

The OBBBA may also open the path for higher return seeking OZ investors to venture into downstream agricultural infrastructure.  In addition to reauthorizing bonus depreciation on equipment with useful lives of 20 years or less, the OBBBA established similar accelerated depreciation on Qualified Production Property or QPP.  Newly constructed facilities eligible for treatment as QPP would typically have IRS useful lives of 39 years, but if they meet the definition of QPP these assets can be fully depreciated in the year placed in service.   QPP must be used for manufacturing, production, or refining activities.  Eligible “production” activities under the OBBBA have been specifically limited to agricultural and chemical production.  The legislation is also specific about what constitutes a qualified activity, focusing on the "substantial transformation" of personal property.

Practical examples of downstream agriculture infrastructure investments that could be feasible under the QROF structure include:

QPP within a QROF would offer a highly attractive investment for OZ investors while simultaneously modernizing the American heartland’s aging agricultural infrastructure.

Conclusion

The transition to Opportunity Zone 2.0 marks an important shift from a broad-brush approach to a more targeted economic strategy. By offering a 30% basis step-up and lowering the improvement barrier to 50%, the OBBBA acknowledges the unique economic realities of rural America. These incentives are likely to affect a meaningful movement of capital gains from traditional urban real estate into America’s breadbasket, offering investors tax efficiency while providing rural communities the opportunity to modernize agricultural infrastructure for the production of the necessities of modern life.

Article By: John Heneghan

The time has once again come for farmers across the United States to harvest their crops and bring another growing season to a close. If you’ve traveled through the I-States (Indiana, Illinois, or Iowa) recently, you’ve likely seen combines rolling steadily across fields, reaping what has been sown. Harvest time is both exhausting and deeply rewarding, a season that stirs memories of past years while sowing hope for what lies ahead.

Still, 2025 has not been an easy year for U.S. agriculture. Tariff tensions have weighed heavily on commodity markets, pushing prices below breakeven levels amidst uncertainty about end market demand and where this year’s grain will ultimately go. As of late October, December corn futures sit around $4.29 per bushel, and November soybeans near $10.64. According to the University of Illinois Farmdoc team, break-even prices for high-productivity farmland are closer to $4.63 for corn and $10.87 for soybeans, meaning most producers are operating in the red. Some farmers sold a portion of their crop when prices peaked in the spring, before tariff headlines hit in April, but most farmers have held back, hoping for a rally that has yet to materialize.

A recent Farm Journal survey of more than 1,100 corn producers signals that 2025 yields will likely fall short of 2024’s record output. The national average is expected to be near 178.5 bushels per acre, down slightly from last year’s 179.3. The steepest declines are showing up in the key I-states, with Illinois down about 7%, Indiana off 4.6%, and Iowa down 3.2%. In contrast, northern states like Minnesota and South Dakota are expected to post modest gains of roughly 3–4%. Disease pressure, late-season dry spells, and localized stress have been key challenges. As of mid-October, roughly 43% of the corn crop had been harvested, and 79% of soybeans were in the bin, helped along by favorable in field drying weather. Storage capacity, however, is becoming a pinch point in parts of the Northern Plains, where over half of South Dakota farmers reported insufficient space for this year’s crop. Even a modest national yield dip in the heart of the Corn Belt could have an outsized influence on overall production and pricing dynamics heading into the 2026 crop year.

Economically, many producers are feeling the squeeze. Farm economists warn that the current downturn is serious, but not quite a replay of the 1980s farm crisis. Nearly 70% of economists see parallels to that difficult decade, but they also note that today’s farmers benefit from stronger USDA safety nets, crop insurance programs, and credit frameworks. The headwinds are clear: soft global demand, high input costs, and continued consolidation across the ag sector. Livestock markets have remained relatively stable, but crop producers are bearing the brunt of compressed farming margins. Economists describe the situation as a “slow grind” rather than a collapse.  The situation is painful for the ag sector, but with resiliency has been built into the sector over many trials. Recovery of farming margins will likely come slowly and unevenly.

Amid these challenges, the USDA’s announcement to release over $3 billion in farm aid offers some much-needed relief to stressed farmers. The funds, drawn from the Commodity Credit Corporation, had been frozen during the recent government shutdown. The government shutdown has also delayed USDA loan processing and farm-service payments at a critical time in the harvest cycle. This new round of support aims to help producers navigate low commodity prices, high input costs, and lingering trade disruptions. Still, questions remain about eligibility, timing, and whether more aid, potentially totaling $10 billion or more, may follow.

In short, the 2025 harvest tells a familiar story in American agriculture: resilience under pressure. Yields may be a touch lighter, the margins tighter, and the markets uncertain, but the hard work of the harvest continues. As combines finish their passes and grain bins fill, farmers across the country are once again doing what they’ve always done best, getting the crop in, steadying their balance sheets, and preparing to start all over again next spring.

The month of August often signals a season of transition and excitement—back-to-school mania, the kickoff of college football, and the return of the ever-popular pumpkin spice latte at Starbucks. In agriculture, however, August also marks the release of one of the most anticipated publications of the year: the USDA Land Values Summary.

The USDA Land Values Summary is an annual report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) that provides average values of U.S. farmland (farm real estate, cropland, and pastureland) and the average cash rental rates for cropland and pasture. It’s important because farmland is the foundation of U.S. agriculture, and its value is a key indicator of the health of the farm economy. Rising or falling land values affect:

In short, the summary provides a national “benchmark” for assessing farmland affordability, producer balance sheets, and broader rural economic conditions. Data are collected directly from producers through nationwide surveys, with results broken down by region and state. The report first presents farm real estate values (all agricultural land and buildings), and then provides more granular analysis by cropland and pasture categories.

For Promised Land’s purposes, our focus remains on cropland values, which most directly align with our investment strategy.

Current Trends in Cropland Values

Cropland values continue to trend upward across the United States, even as commodity prices have weakened throughout much of 2024 and 2025. Historically, land values have been closely correlated with commodity prices. Many agricultural stakeholders expected land values to decline this year in response to lower commodity prices, tariff concerns, and generally declining farm income. While lower-quality land has begun to see a leveling off in values, higher-quality land and land with development potential have continued to appreciate. Note that USDA uses Average Total Cropland meaning it includes both lower quality and higher qualities farmland in the calculation. Promised Land's focus is to invest in high quality, very productive farmland meaning these averages are not reflective of the quality of Promised Land's portfolio.

At the state level, we see the familiar pattern of strong average land values in the Corn Belt, California, and Florida—some of the most agriculturally productive regions in the country. Although these states are no longer experiencing the near double-digit growth that followed the COVID-19 pandemic, they remain resilient and continue to demonstrate strength in a challenging agricultural environment

Concerns remain, however, that these trends may not be sustainable. Tariffs continue to take effect, demand for solar and wind projects is slowing, and commodity prices lack momentum. The USDA has already revised its harvest yield expectations upward by 7.8 bushels in the August 2025 Crop Production Report compared to July’s report. Ideal growing conditions in Iowa, Nebraska, and parts of Illinois and Indiana are contributing to expectations of a large harvest, which could further depress commodity prices. As farmers move into harvest season, the global agricultural community will be monitoring these reports closely.

As Promised Land continues to develop plans for OZ 2.0, our efforts will remain concentrated in areas of the country that have demonstrated strong growth in land values and continue to show promise for future expansion.

Perhaps the apex of economic fireworks this summer came with the passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) —a key campaign promise from President Donald Trump. At the start of the season, there was some uncertainty expressed by media and political pundits whether the legislation would reach the Resolute Desk before summer’s end. However, on July 4th, President Trump officially signed the bill into law.

This landmark legislation builds on one of the signature achievements of Trump’s first term: the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which originally created the Opportunity Zone (OZ) program. The new bill makes the OZ program permanent, with a range of significant updates and modifications. While the whole OBBB legislation spans 887 pages and addresses numerous government revenue and spending provisions, our focus here is on the changes to the Opportunity Zone program.

Extension and Redesignation of the Opportunity Zone Program

The current investment period of Opportunity Zones 1.0 is set to expire on December 31, 2026. A new investment and gain deferral period (OZ 2.0) will begin on January 1, 2027, and importantly includes special incentives for rural revitalization.  OZ 2.0 establishes rolling 5-year capital gain deferral periods and rolling 10-year holding periods from the date of the investment into a qualified opportunity zone fund (QOF) with redesignation of OZs every 10-year anniversary of January 1, 2027.

Under the updated framework:

It’s important to note: this new program does not renew the OZ tracts designated under the existing OZ 1.0 program. The tax deferral benefits under the original OZ framework will expire on December 31, 2026 and such gains deferred under OZ 1.0 will largely become taxable.  No further OZ 1.0 investments can be made in the original zones after this date. However, existing OZ census tracts will remain in place for tracking and reporting purposes, particularly as it relates to the 10-year holding requirement for tax free capital gain treatment upon exit.

Promised Land has successfully completed all capital improvement requirements on the farms within its Fund I portfolio and has been closed for new investment since 2022, positioning us well for this OZ transition phase.

Tightened OZ Eligibility Criteria

The OZ 2.0 program narrows the definition of a "low-income community" to more narrowly target economically distressed areas. A census tract must now meet one of the following conditions:

Additionally, tracts where the median family income exceeds 125% of the state or metropolitan median are excluded from eligibility. These changes are intended to ensure that investment flows only to underserved regions.

Tax Incentives and Benefits

The OZ 2.0 is particularly attractive for investments in rural America, thanks to key tax benefits:

Eased “Substantial Improvement” Rules for QROFs

Under the original OZ rules, tangible property had to be “substantially improved”—typically by doubling its tax basis—for investors to qualify for OZ tax benefits. The new bill maintains the threshold for QOFs but lowers this threshold to 50% only for QROF, significantly reducing the barrier to entry for rural development projects.

More Transparency & Reporting

OBBB introduces robust reporting requirements to improve oversight and public confidence in the program. Both QOFs and QROFs must now submit annual reports detailing:

Failure to comply carries stiff penalties—up to $50,000 per year for larger funds—highlighting a renewed emphasis on transparency, impact measurement, and program integrity.

For more details and expert analysis on OZ 2.0, we encourage you to consult the following resources:

Economic Innovation Group: https://eig.org/opportunity-zones-2-0-where-things-stand/  

PWC: https://www.pwc.com/us/en/services/tax/library/enhanced-and-permanent-opportunity-zones-as-part-of-the-obba.html

Supportive OBBB Provisions

There were a few additional provisions in the OBBB that appear to be very supportive of Promised Land OZ’s farmland and agricultural sector strategy that we’d like to briefly highlight for our readers.

The OBBB includes a Special Depreciation Allowance for Qualified Production Property.  Think of this as the Build Baby Build provision.  This OBBB provision allows an additional first-year depreciation deduction equal to 100% of the adjusted basis of “qualified production property (QPP).” Under prior law, owners of nonresidential real property had to depreciate the cost of such property over a 39-year period. A “qualified production activity” is defined in the OBBBA as manufacturing, production (e.g. agricultural production and chemical production) or refining of a “qualified product” which is generally defined as tangible personal property.   Construction of QPP must begin between January 19, 2025, and January 1, 2029; and be placed in service before January 1, 2031.

There is also a OBBB provision that provides for a 25% interest exclusion for tax purposes on new loans by banks, insurance companies and savings associations to rural or agricultural real property.  The term ‘rural or agricultural real estate’ means (A) any real property which is substantially used for the production of one or more agricultural products, (B) any real property which is substantially used in the trade or business of fishing or seafood processing, and (C) any aquaculture facility.

In addition, a new provision in the OBBB brings a meaningful tax deferral opportunity to farmers selling farmland to other farmers.  Under Section 1062 of the bill, sellers of “qualified farmland property” to “qualified farmers” would be allowed to pay the capital gains tax from the sale in four equal annual installments. This is a significant shift from the current requirement to pay the full tax in the year of sale.  This farmland gain deferral provision requires that the farmland buyer be contractually obligated to actively farm the property for 10 years which dovetails with QROF holding period requirements.  

Promised Land’s Future

Promised Land is proud to have played a role in the rural revitalization made possible by the Opportunity Zone Program. We’ve proven our ability to execute farmland acquisitions and capital improvement projects under the current OZ framework. Promised Land OZ’s two prior funds would meet the new OZ 2.0 definition of a QROF.  It is our intention for PLOZ Fund III to qualify as a QROF. Looking ahead, we are updating our offering materials to align with the new OZ 2.0 program rules. We expect to begin capital raising efforts and deal sourcing well in advance of the January 1, 2027 launch date so we can “get the plow in the ground” once the new tracts have been designated.   Promised Land will conduct rigorous due diligence on rural properties to identify high-impact opportunities with attractive risk-adjusted returns for future investment.

If you’d like to stay informed about upcoming offerings and developments, we invite you to visit us at https://promisedland.fund.

From Farm to Future, Promised Land OZ is committed to being the leading rural development partner for Opportunity Zones located in American farming communities.

Washington, DC, May 8, 2025

Overview
The Opportunity Zone Summit, hosted on May 8, 2025, in Washington, DC, and sponsored by Great Opportunity Policy, a policy advocacy group, brought together policymakers, developers, and economic experts to celebrate the success of Opportunity Zones (OZs) and advocate for their legislative extension and expansion. Established under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), Opportunity Zones (OZs) incentivize private investment in economically distressed communities through tax benefits, aligning with the Promised Land Opportunity Zone’s mission to deliver financial returns and social impact through strategic investments in rural agriculture.

(Photo Courtesy of Great Opportunity Policy)

Keynote Address: Senator Tim Scott
Senator Tim Scott, the “father” of OZ legislation, opened the summit with a compelling case for OZs as a pathway to the American Dream. He highlighted:

Congressional Update: Senators Mike Crapo and Tim Scott
Senators Crapo and Scott outlined the legislative path forward for OZs, leveraging the Budget Reconciliation process to bypass potential Senate filibusters:

Panel Discussions: OZ Impact and Opportunities
Panels provided data-driven insights and strategic opportunities for investors:

Policy and Economic Outlook: Sustaining OZ Growth
Economic and policy leaders outlined strategies to enhance OZ's viability:

In alignment with this momentum, the House of Representatives’ latest Budget Reconciliation effort—nicknamed the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—proposes significant enhancements to the Opportunity Zone program along with many other tax and spend budgetary items. A new round of OZ designations is set to take effect on January 1, 2027, featuring a tightened definition of low-income communities and a requirement that up to 33% of new zones be rural. While this increased rural focus is welcomed, the delayed start date may cause investors to hesitate until the new designations are active, and further delays could arise from the state-level selection process. To attract capital to these rural areas, the bill proposes a 30% basis step-up after a 5-year hold period and reduces the substantial improvement requirement from 100% to 50%. For OZ investments made after 2026, gains can now be deferred until December 31, 2033. A 10% basis step-up is available for assets in non-rural OZs held for five years, but unlike OZ 1.0, there is no 7-year benefit. Existing OZs will officially expire on December 31, 2026. The legislation also allows ordinary income to be deferred and receive the 10-year benefit, though it is not eligible for the 5-year basis step-up and is capped at $10,000 per taxpayer. The budget reconciliation provisions passed the House before Memorial Day weekend, and now the One Big Beautiful Bill will head to the Senate for further review and reconciliation.  Many expect the Senate will rewrite the OZ section to at least address unintended timing considerations causing potential discontinuity in OZ investments.  

Implications for Promised Land Opportunity Zone
The summit reinforces the transformative potential of OZs for low-income communities in rural and urban America:

Next Steps

Conclusion
The 2025 OZ Summit underscores the program’s overwhelming success and social impact on these communities, enthusiastic political support, and alignment with Promised Land Opportunity Zone’s mission. With strong policy support, a focus on rural communities, and proven investment outcomes, OZs remain a cornerstone of our differentiated farmland investment strategy. We invite existing and prospective investors to join us in capitalizing on opportunities to revitalize rural American communities while achieving attractive risk-adjusted returns.

For those looking for some visible passion for this blue collar and rural American comeback, please enjoy this Opportunity Zones - We’re Not Done Yet reel released by Great Opportunity Policy.

For more information, please contact us at info@promisedland.fund.

The first 100 days in office not only mark the start of a new U.S. presidential administration but also serve as a critical checkpoint for newly appointed cabinet officials. In February 2025, Brooke Rollins became the 33rd U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, assuming leadership of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). In this role, she oversees policies that shape the nation's food and agriculture systems, including nutrition assistance programs, trade, rural development, and animal welfare. From day one, Rollins stepped into a complex landscape marked by an agricultural trade deficit, persistent labor shortages, particularly in specialty crops like fruit and produce, a delayed farm bill, and a widespread avian flu crisis. As USDA chief, Rollins manages 100,000 employees across various agencies and offices and an annual budget of over $200 billion.  Let’s take a closer look at her early policy objectives and the pressing challenges facing U.S. agriculture today.

Egg-streme Measures: Rollins Scrambles to Contain Avian Flu Crisis

One of the first manure storms sliding across Secretary Rollins’ desk was the Avian flu crisis, with more than 168 million birds affected and causing egg prices to skyrocket. The initial outbreak began in 2024 and spread like wildfire across the United States as the highly contagious disease can spread easily. Unfortunately, if one bird is found to have the disease, then the entire flock must be slaughtered. As a result, the price of eggs has roughly tripled in just a year to a peak of $6.30 per dozen Grade A eggs in January 2025.  USDA efforts have since brought egg prices down with a projected average price per dozen of $3.90 for the second quarter of 2025.

Secretary Rollins unveiled a five-point plan in an attempt to combat the Avian flu outbreak. The plan involves strengthening biosecurity measures, expediting relief to farmers for repopulation, reducing regulatory burdens, investing $100 million in Avian flu research and Vaccine Development, and looking at potential import partnerships with Turkey and South Korea. While the plan is substantial, some experts argue that this plan is more long-term in nature and will not provide as immediate relief to end consumers of chicken and eggs in the short run. It has been difficult to measure the overall effectiveness of the plan, as the U.S. was just entering what Secretary Rollins calls the "Super Bowl of Eggs"—Easter.

Let’s SNAP to It

Many people don’t realize that nutrition assistance programs operate under the purview of the USDA. The first food stamp program began in 1939 in the aftermath of the Great Depression and has since evolved into a $112.8 billion program titled the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). In total, the U.S. spends roughly $166.4 billion on food and nutrition assistance programs, including SNAP, school lunch programs, the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), and other nutrition programs. The state of Illinois has some of the highest utilization rates, with more than 16% of the population within the state receiving SNAP benefits.

Source: USDA

Source: USDA

Secretary Rollins has called for a revaluation of SNAP, as the program grew 20-30% under the Biden administration. It is important to note, however, that it is unclear whether this growth is attributed to an expansion of benefits or increased food insecurity issues during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Rollins has voiced concerns over the use of SNAP benefits by illegal immigrants and has called for enhanced identification and immigration verification in determining eligibility. Another goal of the new Secretary is reforming SNAP consistent with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr.’s “Make America Healthy Again” movement by common-sense restrictions on SNAP benefits for sugary items such as ice cream, soda, and prepared dessert items. 11 states have proposed banning these sweet treats from SNAP benefits. This ban has been proposed several times over the years and even during Trump’s first term. The first time around, Trump denied a waiver to restrict sugary items because of the high cost to administer the program.

Cutting out sweets comes on the heels of a proposed $230 billion cut to the USDA’s total operating budget over ten years by House Republicans. The Senate has proposed a $1 billion cut, with the majority targeting supplemental nutrition programs. Currently, nearly 13% of the population relies on these programs, and critics argue the cuts could disproportionately impact the most vulnerable, particularly women and children. With food prices continuing to rise, there is growing concern that these cuts could further strain marginalized communities. Still, in an era of budget tightening and heightened scrutiny of the federal deficit, some argue that such reductions may be necessary to ensure the long-term financial viability of USDA programs.  Secretary Rollins has said she is currently working with the Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, to find ways to reduce costs and increase operational efficiency of all USDA programs, with SNAP being the most logical place to look for inefficiencies.

Grain of Truth: Who’s Really Steering the Trade Ship?

It is no secret that the U.S. Agriculture sector is currently facing challenges from the Trump administration's tariff measures. In our last insight, we examined the current but ever-changing landscape of agricultural trade in the United States. Current tariff measures could have a substantial impact on the demand for U.S. crops. While a majority of these conversations have been led by President Trump, Secretary Rollins has said she supports these measures in what she calls an effort to “Save America.” Rollins stated in a CNN interview that Americans have been “living under” the import tariffs and embargoes of U.S. products and services by China and that the European Union’s “fake science” has kept U.S. pork and beef out of European countries. When asked about the permanency of these tariffs, she stated that Trump “is the ultimate dealmaker.”

This year, Secretary Rollins is set to visit several key trading partners—including Vietnam, Japan, India, Peru, Brazil, and the United Kingdom—as part of USDA’s global trade mission, which also includes destinations like Hong Kong, the Dominican Republic, Taiwan, Côte d’Ivoire, and Mexico. These visits come at a time when the U.S. is working to address large trade deficits with India ($1.3 billion) and agricultural powerhouse Brazil ($7 billion) and facing high tariffs and limited market access in the UK. Japan remains a vital market for major U.S. commodities, but competition from other exporting countries has intensified, making it harder for U.S. products to maintain market share. Vietnam, the U.S.’s tenth-largest agricultural export market, does not have a formal trade agreement with the U.S., which puts American exporters at a disadvantage compared to countries like China that have more favorable trade terms. Meanwhile, Peru offers strong growth potential, particularly in ethanol, dairy, meat, and specialty crops.

Critics argue that while these trade missions aim to diversify U.S. agricultural exports, it doesn’t sufficiently address the immediate challenges faced by American Farmers, such as low commodity prices, high financing costs, and labor shortages. Secretary Rollins stated on April 30th in an interview with Fox News that the Trump administration is preparing a potential financial assistance program for farmers adversely affected by trade wars, though she hopes it won’t be necessary as the U.S. focuses on expanding agricultural exports to reduce dependence on China. During Trump’s first term, a similar trade war with China led to $28 billion in direct payments for farmers as a result of low commodity prices from the decreased demand.

The Road Ahead for Secretary Rollins

Amidst all the uncertainty in the U.S. agricultural space, Secretary Rollins has repeatedly assured farming communities that rural America is a top priority of the USDA and President Trump. In her first 100 days, Rollins has tackled everything from rising egg prices to reforming SNAP and mixing it up in the complex world of trade. While her proposals have generated both praise and criticism, what’s clear is that she heads a strategically and politically important sector of the U.S. economy—one with high future expectations, limited budgetary resources, excluding SNAP, and growing public scrutiny. Whether Rollins can deliver meaningful change remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the next 100 days may be even more defining than the first.

The smell of freshly turned soil, the crisp spring air, and the promise of new seeds flowering into a livelihood. The encouraging sights, smells, and sounds of spring planting bring a welcome refresh to farmers across rural America after a long winter and challenging 2024 crop year. The unpredictability of moisture weather patterns from March to June introduces significant uncertainty into a farmer's life. On top of that, American farmers' agricultural rhythms will also face the drumbeat of uncertainty from the shifting tides of trade policy.

Agricultural tariffs have long been a powerful trade policy tool, used either to protect domestic production or as leverage in geopolitical negotiations. One of the earliest tariff policies impacting agriculture was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930, which raised U.S. tariffs on more than 20,000 imported goods. As the U.S. was still largely agrarian at the time, this policy exacerbated the effects of the Great Depression for American farmers. Over the years, trade conditions gradually improved, particularly with key agreements like the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), signed in 1947 by 153 countries to reduce global trade barriers. For U.S. farmers, this meant greater access to international markets, increasing exports, and driving growth across agricultural sectors. However, GATT also led to increased competition, as foreign producers could more easily enter the U.S. market, challenging domestic farmers to improve efficiency to compete with global production and pricing pressures.

In 1995, the World Trade Organization (WTO) was established, further structuring trade relations and providing a stronger framework for protections, regulations, and dispute resolution. While the WTO has facilitated broader access to global markets in agriculture, it has also introduced more stringent policies on subsidies and domestic support programs. Agriculture has traditionally relied on many of these programs to mitigate the vagaries of weather patterns and commodity markets.

Sowing the Seeds of Trade Tensions

In 2017, the Trump administration imposed sweeping tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, prompting swift retaliation from major U.S. trading partners, particularly China. In response, China levied steep tariffs on American agricultural exports, including soybeans, corn, pork, and dairy products. Given that China was the largest export market for U.S. soybeans at the time, these tariffs delivered an immediate and painful blow to American farmers. Before 2023, China was the top destination for U.S. agricultural products. However, this relationship has shifted markedly, and by the end of 2025, China is projected to be third on the list.

Source: USDA

According to the USDA’s Economic Research Service, U.S. soybean exports to China plummeted by over 70% following the implementation of 2017 tariffs, forcing farmers to seek alternative markets and relying on government subsidies to offset farming losses. During this time, China began importing much of its soy requirements from Brazil, which had recently emerged as a world leader in the space. China has continued to source more and more soybeans from Brazil. The Trump administration responded with the Market Facilitation Program (MFP), which provided nearly $28 billion in aid to affected farmers between 2018 and 2019. However, the uncertainty about a further souring of Chinese trade relations has left many in agriculture concerned about the long-term stability of global demand for soybeans and other crops. Relying on Federal subsidies or relief payments each time tariffs have an adverse effect on Chinese demand is not a sustainable solution in the long run.

Source: USDA

Weathering the Storm: The Impact of Tariffs on Farm Income and Farmland

As the chart above depicts, the economic fallout from the 2017 trade war with China has extended beyond soybeans with wheat and corn trade with China also down by more than 60% in the following year. The USDA reported that overall farm income saw significant declines, with net farm income dropping nearly 16% in 2018 compared to pre-tariff levels (USDA Economic Research Service). The retaliatory tariffs also reduced agricultural commodity prices, making it harder for farmers to make a profit.

Source: USDA

Despite these trade pressures, it is very rare for farmland values to experience a steep decline, as land is generally an appreciating asset. However, during this period, land values leveled off due to lower commodity prices on lower demand for U.S. soybeans and other major commodities. After the COVID-19 pandemic, farmland values rebounded and saw significant appreciation, but they have since leveled off as commodity prices have declined. If commodity prices continue on their current downward trend, it is unlikely that farmland values will see any meaningful appreciation in the near future.

Source: USDA

The 2025 Tariff Landscape: A Return to Trade Wars?

Having seen what happened in agricultural commodity markets in the aftermath of the 2017 trade war, let’s fast forward to 2025. Trump has returned to the White House and has once again made tariffs a central focus of his economic policy. In an effort to reduce fiscal budget deficits and boost domestic manufacturing, the administration has reintroduced tariffs on several key imports and trading partners. Canada, Mexico, and China—America’s largest trading partners for both agricultural imports and exports—are all targets of President Trump’s tariff negotiations. Considerable agricultural machinery is manufactured in Mexico, while some crop inputs, such as fertilizers like potassium, are largely produced in Canada. These proposed tariffs could not only raise the costs of these inputs but also lower commodity prices for farmers as agricultural buyers shift their demand to international competitors.

Source: Farmdoc Daily

New tariff proposals on Chinese goods have reignited fears of retaliatory action by China against U.S. agricultural exports. In February 2025, China announced potential countermeasures that could target American corn and beef, raising concerns among producers already grappling with higher production costs and fluctuating global demand. A Farm Bureau analysis suggests that these tariffs could lead to a 10-15% decline in U.S. agricultural exports to China, exacerbating economic pressures on U.S. farmers.

Long-Term Consequences: Protection or Peril?

The broader question remains: do tariffs ultimately benefit or harm American agriculture? Proponents argue that they encourage domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign markets, fostering self-sufficiency in key industries. However, critics contend that retaliatory measures, combined with increased input costs, place farmers in a precarious position.

A 2025 report from farmdoc daily highlights that, while tariffs may offer short-term political leverage, they create long-term volatility that disrupts supply chains and weakens U.S. competitiveness in global agricultural markets. Additionally, while government aid packages can provide temporary relief, they do not offer a sustainable solution to the broader challenges facing the agricultural sector.

In light of these trade disruptions, Brooke Rollins, Trump’s U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, has outlined a strategic vision aimed at supporting farmers and revitalizing rural America. In her opening remarks at the USDA, she emphasized refocusing the department on its core mission of serving farmers and ranchers. At the Commodity Classic, Rollins announced the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (E-CAP) to distribute $10 billion in economic and disaster aid to farmers, alongside releasing funds for programs like the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP), Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP), and Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP). She has also advocated for repealing the "death tax" to protect family farms, encouraging businesses to relocate production to small towns, and collaborating with Congress on a new farm bill to provide long-term stability for producers. These initiatives reflect a strategy centered on financial support, deregulation, and rural economic development.

Navigating the Future: Strategies for Resilience

As farmers navigate the ongoing uncertainty of trade wars, many are implementing strategies to protect themselves from economic turbulence. Key approaches include expanding export markets beyond China, investing in technology to enhance efficiency, and advocating for policy stability. President Trump has emphasized the need to strengthen domestic markets for agricultural products, particularly as the U.S. faces a negative agricultural trade balance despite being an agricultural powerhouse. However, this imbalance is largely driven by the high-value horticulture industry, including imports of fresh flowers, fruits, vegetables, and nut trees, rather than the lower-value bulk commodities such as corn and soybeans that dominate U.S. agriculture. Expanding domestic horticultural production presents significant challenges, as many of these crops require equatorial climates, making large-scale production in the U.S. difficult.

Source: Farmdoc Daily

It seems likely that the Trump Administration’s plans for rural economic development referenced by USDA Secretary Rollins are linked with plans to increase domestic use of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Research suggests development plans include boosting ethanol production for corn, promoting biodiesel for soybeans, and supporting food uses for wheat, though specific details are still emerging. Strategic plans also include supporting the livestock industry to increase feed demand for corn and soybeans, with less clarity on wheat-specific strategies.  Potential Administration plans for increasing domestic commodity crop uses are as follows:

Corn

The Administration appears to be prioritizing ethanol production, likely by expanding blending mandates or offering tax incentives, given past support for the ethanol industry, especially in Corn Belt states like Iowa. Additionally, supporting the livestock industry could boost corn use as animal feed, helping boost domestic demand for corn.

Soybeans

Administration plans also seem to include promoting biodiesel production from soybean oil, possibly through incentives for its use in transportation, reflecting previous efforts to support biofuels and sustainable aviation fuel.  Similar to corn, increasing livestock production could raise demand for soybean meal, aligning with the domestic market focus.

Wheat

For wheat, the Administration strategy is less clear but likely involves supporting the baking industry and increasing its use in government food programs, such as school lunches, to enhance domestic consumption. However, specific initiatives are harder to pinpoint compared to corn and soybeans.

Building new infrastructure for ethanol, biodiesel, and livestock production takes years and significant resources, and there may be a time lag before domestic demand can fully compensate for lost international demand. The transition from international markets to domestic consumption comes with risks and uncertainties. Some agribusiness companies may decide it’s better to sit on the sidelines until greater clarity and specificity around the Administration’s agricultural transition plans have been provided.

As the 2025 trade landscape continues to evolve, U.S. agriculture finds itself at a crossroads, navigating an uncertain future shaped by policy decisions beyond its control. The Administration has plans to mitigate export losses by enhancing domestic consumption, though their effectiveness depends on implementation and market response. The promotion of local processing facilities offers an unexpected but promising avenue for long-term domestic market development. Whether these strategic initiatives ultimately yield prosperity or prolonged instability remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: American farmers will continue to adapt, innovate, and persevere through the ever-changing fields of uncertainty.

For the last 4 years, Promised Land OZ has joined the Land Investment Expo presented by Peoples Company. Peoples has built up the Land Investment Expo in attendance and speakers over the last 18 years. This year saw 1,400 in-person attendees and another 800 joining virtually! The Expo brings together investors, landowners, and agricultural experts for a full day packed with headline speakers, breakout sessions, and exhibit booths. Not a single minute is wasted. 

Of note, keynote speaker and venture capitalist Joe Lonsdale was quite positive and excited about the change in leadership in the U.S. He suggested that the media and populus wouldn’t be able to keep up with the speed of change in the White House over the first 100 days of Trump being in office.  He was not kidding. One legislative item important to Trump 1.0 was the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act which is set to expire end of 2025.  Many Washington insiders are anticipating legislative action soon to renew these sunsetting 2017 tax benefits, including OZ legislation.  In fact, the Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (MO-08) issued a press release on February 3, 2025, urging quick extension of the Trump 2017 tax cuts (which included Opportunity Zone legislation) to help America’s poorest communities:  “If we permanently extend the Trump tax cuts, we will breathe new life and prosperity into all kinds of communities – including rural America.

Next up Founder and CEO of Conservation Equity Management, Kyle Bass, spoke about the impact of inflation. He brought up a graph of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, at $9 trillion, mentioning that the Federal government has spent 40% more than the tax revenues it has received. This government largesse is driving inflation up. Bass further discussed the chain-weighted dollar methodology the Feds use for measuring inflation, which, in his view, massages reported inflation lower than what is really felt by consumers. 

Kyle was followed by breakout sessions covering a variety of topics. We chose to attend "Connecting Farmers with Capital. Farmland Investments for the Wealth Management Industry". Speakers were Craig Lemoine, PhD, Director of Financial Planning at the University of Illinois, Jonathan Shively - Director of Capital Partnerships at Peoples Company, and Damian Howard SVP of Investment Services at Security National Bank. Security National had an interesting regulatory twist on making farmland investing available to non-accredited investors while also not being a crowd-funded platform. The Q & A session got a little spicy with differing views between Damian and audience members on cash flow management and farmers’ penchant for leasing additional acreage.  

Breakout sessions were followed by lunch and another keynote speaker, Steve Eiseman, managing director at Neuberger Berman. His investment focus areas are Infrastructure, Artificial Intelligence, and Financials with a geographic location in the US and a desire for a "good story". He gave an interesting take on crypto, although it has a "good story" he will never be interested in it as he’d rather collect old comic books. Eiseman made his name on Wall Street by shorting the residential mortgage market in 2008-09.

Next up was Richard Vague, an author and economic futurist, who discussed "Tariffs and our 250 years of Internal Battles". His take on mitigating trade imbalances was not tariffs, but rather through innovation. He stressed the importance of strong investments in Agricultural research to achieve breakthroughs that will keep U.S. farmland and its agricultural industry the envies of the world. 

Another round of breakout sessions took place, with Promise Land's very own Fund Manager, John Heneghan taking the stage with Peoples Company farm manager, Jim Goss. Both used the session to highlight how investing capital in rural opportunity zones can reap benefits not only to accredited investors through land appreciation and tax benefits but also to the community and businesses in the area through job creation and increased productivity and income to farmer tenants.  An investment teaser on Promise Land Fund II was included with hopes of raising funds for a farm under contract in Douglas County, IL. 

Afternoon breakout sessions were followed by a main speaker, Marc Brinkmeyer, chairman of Idaho Forest Group who spoke about the convergence of innovation and sustainability. Something you could tell Marc was especially passionate about. He gave us a peek at his steam engine saw mills collection which exists to meticulously preserve the history of innovation but also provide education on Idaho Forest Group’s humble beginnings.

Dave Muth, director of capital markets at Peoples Company, discussed "Farmland investing for tomorrow: Not your parents asset class". There's a high percentage of farmland owned by aging farmers and he expects about 70% of farmland will change generational hands over the next 20 years.  A staggering amount of acreage! 

Last but certainly not least was venture capitalist Joe Lonsdale.  Joe really stressed the importance of having the best and brightest technologists and industry practitioners in the right roles to create innovation and sustainable competitive advantages in any industry. He had a strong viewpoint that regulators tend to slow innovation down and get in the way of progress. He was quite positive and excited about the change in leadership in the U.S. He suggested that the media and populus wouldn’t be able to keep up with the speed of change in the White House over the first 100 days of Trump being in office. 

He was not kidding. One legislative item important to Trump 1.0 was the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act which is set to expire end of 2025.  Many Washington insiders are anticipating legislative action soon to renew these sunsetting 2017 tax benefits, including OZ legislation.  In fact, the Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (MO-08) issued a press release on February 3, 2025, urging quick extension of the Trump 2017 tax cuts (which included Opportunity Zone legislation) to help America’s poorest communities:  “If we permanently extend the Trump tax cuts, we will breathe new life and prosperity into all kinds of communities – including rural America.”

Just barely over a week after the Investment Expo Promise Land was able to close on Promised Land Opportunity Zone Fund II with an anchor investor that we initially met at our breakout session! The Land Investment Expo was certainly a trip that reaped multiple benefits both educationally and professionally.

Stay tuned for information on Promise Land Opportunity Zone Fund III.

Earlier this summer, we discussed the outlook for the 2024 growing season, noting that the income potential for agricultural producers appeared less than promising due to weakening commodity prices. The USDA’s Economic Research Service recently released its income projections for 2024, confirming what many in the market had anticipated. After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is expected to drop by $10.2 billion to $140.0 billion, or nearly 7%, from 2023 to 2024. 

pl agricultures cyclical history picture1

The decline is worrisome for many in agriculture, but this isn’t the first time we have experienced a reversion to the mean in farm income after a record-breaking peak as we did in 2022. Even glancing at the figure below from Farmdoc Daily, we can see these cyclical moments in agricultural history. Some of the more notable income troughs occurred in the 1980s, early 2000s, and the mid-2010s. As we look at the current landscape in the agricultural economy, it is important to look at where we have been and how it relates to future expectations. 

pl agricultures cyclical history picture2

The Crisis Years: 1980’s 

“Go Big or Get Out”—the famous last words of former United States Secretary of Agriculture, Earl Butz. This rallying cry came after the United States negotiated a $750 million grain deal with the Soviet Union in 1972, promising U.S. farmers a steady income stream for years. However, this promise was short-lived. In 1979, after the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, President Jimmy Carter imposed a grain embargo on one of America’s key trading partners. As a result, farm commodity prices plummeted, and farmland values naturally followed suit. Isn’t it strange that some 60-odd years later, we’re still reading headlines about Afghanistan and sanctions and embargos of Russia? 

The 1970s had been a time of prosperity for many in agriculture, as the new Russian demand drove commodity prices upward. With more money in their pockets, farmers sought to expand their operations, often by acquiring more land. Banks across the country were eager to lend vast amounts of capital, but these loans were often based on collateral values rather than the farms’ ability to generate consistent cash flow. When the Russian grain embargo was enacted by the Carter administration, many landowners found themselves unable to handle the debt service on the mortgages to purchase additional farmland, leading to a wave of farm failures across the country. 

What parallels can we draw to today? The rising land values in recent years have led some to speculate whether we may be heading toward a repeat of the mistakes of the 1980s. Declining commodity prices have prompted those who lived through the Butz and Carter era to recall their experiences. While a tightening of farm incomes is inevitable, and some will be left behind, it is unlikely we will experience the same level of pain felt during the 1980s. Credit standards are now more stringent than ever, shaped by the lessons learned from the farm crisis. For example, Farmer Mac and the Farm Credit System will generally only lend up to 50% of the value of the farmland versus the much higher leverage of the 1980s. Furthermore, today’s average farm operation is larger, more financially resilient, and better equipped to manage the cyclical risk of agriculture, meaning most will weather the current conditions. 

The Years After 9/11: The Early 2000’s 

As we come up on the 23-year anniversary of that ill-fated day in September when almost 3,000 people lost their lives. The event marked changes in global trade and concerns over whether global markets could continue safely. Commodity prices were already low coming into 2001 and changes in government farm programs reduced subsidy payments to farmers. Direct government payments were nearly cut in half, declining from $20.7 billion in 2001 to $11 billion in 2002. The emergency payments that had bolstered net farm income since 1998 ended with the implementation of the 2002 Farm Bill and were replaced by counter-cyclical payments intended for farmers during low-commodity price years. However, a drought-reduced corn crop led to higher corn prices, resulting in no counter-cyclical payments being made in 2001. Additionally, due to government budgetary constraints and other political factors, Congress did not approve any farmer disaster aid. High yields in 2002 combined with low commodity prices led to the lowest real cash farm income since the Great Depression. 

While the current situation isn’t exactly like that of the early 2000s, some are concerned about what could change when the next farm bill is passed. The most recent farm bill expired almost a year ago and the bipartisanship of the upcoming elections has stalled efforts for passage of a replacement Farm Bill. According to Jonathan Coppess, Professor at the University of Illinois, the chances of Farm Bill reauthorization in 2024 are extremely low due to a lack of progress in Congress and significant political and budgetary challenges. The House Agriculture Committee’s proposal to increase reference prices for certain crops lacks viable budget offsets, leading to further political division, especially with proposed cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). 

The Fall after the Rise: The Mid 2010’s 

In 2012, I experienced my first harvest behind the wheel of my family’s combine where I witnessed the most dry and barren crop I had seen in my 15 years. I thought maybe I was bad luck. However, even though crop yields in the drought-stricken Midwest were the lowest they had been in decades, crop insurance payouts and skyrocketing commodity prices bolstered farm incomes that year. However, the 2012 ag boom was short-lived as several years of strong crops caused grain stockpiles to grow and commodity prices to slip once again. Trade relations with the growing Chinese economy also became tense during this time over banned corn genetics being detected in crop imports to China. Later in 2013, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) decided to reconsider its Renewable Fuel Standards and proposed reducing the amount of ethanol blended into gasoline, sending grain markets into greater turmoil. Strong yields led the U.S. grain stockpile to grow and uncertainties regarding demand mounted throughout much of the mid-2010’s. 

How does this situation parallel today? The future of ethanol is less certain, with the rise in demand for electric vehicles and China now sourcing its grain from a new global leader—Brazil. However, there is a bright spot on the horizon for biofuels. Innovations in soy biodiesel and soy-based jet fuel have prompted discussions about whether soy could be the feedstock for aviation fuels of the future. Consequently, soybean prices have remained more stable than corn in 2024, leading many farmers to consider planting more soybeans in 2025. 

History Recap 

Reflecting on these historical cyclical downturns, it’s clear that the agricultural economy has always been shaped by a combination of market forces, policy changes, and global events. While the challenges facing today’s farmers may bear some resemblance to those of the past, the lessons learned from previous crises have made the industry more adaptable and resilient. By understanding these cycles and the factors that drive them, we can better navigate the uncertain times ahead. While the future may hold new obstacles, it also brings more opportunities for growth and innovation. Farmers and industry leaders alike must remain vigilant, adaptive, and forward-thinking, preparing not just for the next season, but for the long-term shifts that continue to shape the landscape of agriculture. Despite the cyclical nature of agriculture, farmland will remain a sustainable source of food and fuel needed for humanity to thrive for generations to come. 

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